Future trends driving the mobility sector: A Q&A with Andres Sheppard

Self-driving cars and flying taxis once seemed like distant ideas from the future. However, as Cantor’s Andres Sheppard points out to the Cantor Editorial Team, there are now favorable conditions enabling the adoption of self-driving vehicles, and the emergence of commercially operated electric Vertical Take-Off & Landing (eVTOLs).

What will electric vehicle demand look like in 2025?

Andres: Last year, approximately 1.3 million electric vehicles were sold in the U.S., accounting for 8% of all passenger vehicles sold – an increase compared to the previous year. This trend is expected to continue through 2025 but at a modest pace.

One factor that may impact sales performance is the potential removal of the EV tax credit, worth up to $7,500. On average, EVs cost about $10,000 more than a traditional car. With the tax credit in place, consumers may be encouraged to purchase EVs while available. As a result, we anticipate a scenario where demand gradually accelerates in the first half of 2025 as consumers rush to take advantage of the tax credit.

What will drive the acceleration of autonomous or self-driving vehicles?

Our view is that self-driving technology is poised to continue to accelerate and ultimately flourish this year.

At present, more than 20 states permit self-driving vehicles to operate on their roads. At the same time, the presidential administration has suggested a potential federal mandate for self-driving technology, which is encouraging.

In recent months, we have witnessed ongoing development in self-driving technology for both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are bringing this technology to market, with some already operating self-driving vehicles.

Many OEMs are developing this technology using cameras, radars, and light, detection and ranging technology (LIDARs). These enhanced safety features enable vehicles to monitor their surroundings more effectively than humans can, especially in the case of commercial vehicles like trucks.

Why are self-driving vehicles useful for commercial purposes?

In the U.S., more than 70% of goods are transported by trucks.¹ However, in the U.S there has been an ongoing truck driver shortage that has grown in the last decade. According to the American Trucking Association, there is a record deficit of 80,000 drivers.²

Additionally, by law, truck drivers can only operate for 11 consecutive hours before they are required to take a break. On the other hand, a self-driving truck can legally operate continuously, enabling goods to be transported faster, more efficiently, and safer, while providing a solution to the driver shortage.

Let’s talk about electronic vertical take-off and landing vehicles, what are some of the best use cases?

The initial eVTOL models will accommodate up to four passengers and one pilot, with an average travel between 15-40 miles. While eVTOLs can reach distances of up to 100 miles, the initial routes will likely only cover approximately 25 miles. They are designed for shorter, more congested routes.

When going from point A to point B in a local vicinity, eVTOLs offer a significant advantage over traditional vehicles, especially considering traffic and noise reduction. For example, instead of spending an hour driving to a New York City area airport, an eVTOL can make the same journey in only 10 minutes. This option is not only faster but more environmentally friendly, safer, and cost-competitive.

How soon do you see eVTOLs being adopted?

One of the encouraging themes around eVTOLs that we are seeing is the overall acceleration toward commercialization worldwide.

The Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates, will likely be the first market where OEMs could enter service in a small capacity by the end of this year.

Cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago could see operations commence in 2026 and 2027, depending on FAA certification.

The significant question around adoption is the speed at which it occurs. There is not only the regulatory perspective to consider, but also the safety aspect and a city’s willingness to embrace this technology.

For Important Disclosures, see: Disclaimer – Cantor | Cantor

1. American Trucking Associations. Economics and Industry Data. American Trucking Associations, https://www.trucking.org/economics-and-industry-data.
2. Peter S. Goodman, “The Real Reason America Doesn’t Have Enough Truck Drivers,” The New York Times, February 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-shortage.html.